The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has claimed that Nigeria could have been facing a petrol subsidy bill of about N53 trillion and an exchange rate of around N3,500 to the dollar if the Federal Government had not removed the fuel subsidy and unified the foreign exchange market.
NRS Executive Chairman, Dr Zacch Adedeji, made the claim during an interview on Channels Television on Sunday, while defending the economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu.
According to Adedeji, the reforms were painful at the beginning but necessary to prevent the country’s economic situation from deteriorating further.
He said Nigeria had reached a critical point when Tinubu assumed office and argued that the decision to remove the petrol subsidy was one that could not be avoided.
“At that time we were at the lowest point. Actually, we’d reached the bottom, and if Mr. President had not taken that decision at that time, only God knows where we would have been now,” he said.
NRS: Subsidy Could Have Reached N53trn
Adedeji said rising international oil prices and global tensions would have pushed the cost of maintaining the subsidy to unsustainable levels.
“The subsidy today would have been N53 trillion if Mr. President had not removed it, given what is happening in Iran, given what is happening globally, and the total budget of Nigeria today is N63 trillion,” he said.
He argued that continuing the subsidy would have consumed a huge portion of the Federal Government’s total budget, leaving fewer resources for other areas of national development.
The NRS chairman also claimed that the naira would have suffered a much sharper decline if the previous subsidy and foreign exchange arrangements had remained in place.
“The exchange rate today would have been naira at N3,500 to a dollar if that had not been done,” Adedeji said.
NRS Highlights Economic Gains
Adedeji attributed what he described as improvements in Nigeria’s economic outlook to the Tinubu administration’s reforms under the Renewed Hope Agenda.
He said the government inherited four major economic distortions: an unsustainable petrol subsidy system, an opaque foreign exchange regime, an underperforming oil sector and a tax base that was generating far below its potential.
According to him, the initial hardship caused by the reforms has been followed by signs of recovery, including easing inflation, an improved balance of payments, increased oil-sector activity, stronger tax collections and changes in the country’s productive base.
An internal NRS report cited by Adedeji said the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) had risen from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026.
He argued that the growth had benefited ordinary investors and created more wealth through the stock market.
“The market capitalisation was N30 trillion. Today it is N150 trillion. What does that mean? Shareholders, the common shareholder. These are companies listed on the stock exchange, and they are getting richer. We’ve created more than 900,000 millionaires based on this,” he said.
‘Poverty Would Have Been Worse Without Reforms’
The NRS chairman also argued that Nigeria’s poverty situation would have deteriorated significantly if the reforms had not been implemented.
“If you remember where we are coming from, if we had not done what we’re supposed to do, possibly double or triple of that population will have gone to poverty. And I’m telling you that progress is what we should measure,” he said.
The NRS report stated that tax collections had more than doubled from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion as of July 2026.
It attributed the increase to the digitisation of tax systems, new tax reform laws, the transformation of the revenue service and an executive order aimed at closing loopholes.
Reserves, Trade and Capital Inflows Improve
According to the report, Nigeria’s economic growth increased from 2.74 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in the first half of 2026, while external reserves rose from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion by July 2026.
The country’s balance of payments also reportedly moved from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026.
Nigeria’s trade position recorded another major improvement, with the country moving from a marginal surplus of about N44.7 billion to N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.
The composition of exports also showed changes, with exports of other petroleum products reportedly increasing by 51 percent year-on-year to N6.78 trillion in Q1 2026.
Annual capital importation rose from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, while inflows reached $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, according to the report.
Minimum Wage, Education and Local Refining
The report also said Nigeria’s minimum wage had doubled between 2023 and 2026, while government policies and incentives had contributed to a reduction in the estimated number of out-of-school children from 20 million to 18.3 million, based on UNICEF estimates.
It further credited the government’s naira-for-crude arrangement with Dangote Refinery and other local refineries with helping Nigeria move towards becoming a net exporter of petroleum products after years of relying heavily on imports.
The NRS maintained that the reforms have created a stronger foundation for economic stability, although the administration’s policies have also generated significant debate over their impact on Nigerians and the cost of living.
Source: Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) / Channels Television.
