Nigeria exported more than 485 million barrels of crude oil in 2025, representing over 82 percent of the country’s total oil production for the year, according to a new industry report released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The report revealed that while Nigeria produced approximately 592 million barrels of crude oil and condensates in 2025, only about 106.56 million barrels — roughly 18 percent of total production — were allocated to domestic refineries.
The development highlights Nigeria’s continued heavy dependence on crude oil exports despite growing calls to prioritise local refining and strengthen domestic energy security.
Nigeria Averaged 1.62 Million Barrels Per Day in 2025
According to the NUPRC report, Nigeria recorded an average daily production of 1.62 million barrels of crude oil and condensates throughout 2025.
Out of this figure:
- 1.33 million barrels per day were exported to international markets
- 290,000 barrels per day were supplied to local refineries
The regulator explained that crude oil accounted for 82 percent of total production, while condensates represented the remaining 18 percent.
The report stated:
“In 2025, total crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.62 million barrels per day, translating to approximately 592 million barrels for the year.”
According to the commission, the stable production ratio reflects consistency in Nigeria’s hydrocarbon portfolio and indicates sustained operational performance across upstream assets.
Crude Oil Exports Continue to Dominate Nigeria’s Oil Sector
The report showed that Nigeria’s oil industry remains heavily export-oriented, with more than four-fifths of total crude production shipped abroad.
Industry analysts say the country’s strong export dependency continues to expose the economy to global oil price volatility and fluctuations in international energy markets.
According to the NUPRC:
“The high export dependency ratio underscores Nigeria’s continued reliance on international crude oil markets.”
The commission also noted that the close match between production volumes and lifting figures reflects improved operational efficiency, stronger accounting systems, and reduced unaccounted losses within the sector.
Total lifting volumes reportedly matched production levels at a ratio of 1:1 during the year under review.
Domestic Refinery Allocation Remains Low
Although domestic refining allocations remained significantly smaller than export volumes, the regulator noted that the steady supply to local refineries supports Nigeria’s ongoing refining expansion and import substitution goals.
The commission explained that future industry performance would largely depend on:
- OPEC production policies
- Global crude demand trends
- Energy transition policies
- Stability of domestic refining infrastructure
Despite the growing emphasis on local refining, many industry experts argue that Nigeria still prioritises exports over domestic refining needs.
Dangote Refinery Faces Crude Supply Challenges
The report comes amid ongoing complaints by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery over inadequate crude oil supply from domestic producers.
Despite Nigeria being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, the 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery has repeatedly raised concerns about insufficient access to locally produced crude under the naira-for-crude arrangement.
Industry sources revealed that while Nigeria exported massive crude volumes in 2025, the Dangote refinery struggled to secure enough feedstock to operate at optimal capacity.
According to refinery insiders, the facility requires approximately 19.77 million barrels of crude monthly to run efficiently.
However, between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, the refinery reportedly received only 29.21 million barrels out of an estimated requirement of 108.74 million barrels.
This means the refinery operated with just about 26.9 percent of its expected crude supply during the five-and-a-half-month period.
Breakdown of Crude Supplied to Dangote Refinery
Data obtained from senior refinery officials showed the following monthly supply figures:
- October 2025 — 4.55 million barrels
- November 2025 — 6.45 million barrels
- December 2025 — 4.30 million barrels
- January 2026 — 5.65 million barrels
- February 2026 — 4.66 million barrels
- March 2026 (first half) — 3.6 million barrels
The figures indicate that more than three-quarters of the refinery’s crude requirements were unmet during the review period.
Dangote Refinery Accuses Producers of Failing to Supply Crude
The Dangote refinery recently accused local upstream producers of failing to comply with provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act regarding domestic crude supply obligations.
According to the company, it received only about five cargoes monthly from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) instead of the 13 cargoes required to sustain operations and product supply within Nigeria.
The refinery explained that the limited cargoes supplied were sold at international market prices plus premium costs, making operations more expensive.
The company stated:
“Nigeria’s upstream producers have failed to supply crude oil to the refinery as required under the Petroleum Industry Act, forcing us to source substantial volumes through international traders at additional premium costs.”
The refinery warned that inadequate domestic supply could affect fuel production, increase operational expenses, and weaken Nigeria’s refining ambitions.
NNPC Increases Crude Supply to Dangote Refinery
Amid mounting criticism, the NNPC recently increased crude supply to the Dangote refinery from five cargoes monthly to 10 cargoes.
Africa’s richest man and President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, disclosed in a recent interview that the refinery received 10 crude cargoes in March 2026.
According to Dangote:
- Six cargoes were paid for in naira
- Four cargoes were paid for in dollars
Despite the increase, the supply still falls below the refinery’s estimated monthly requirement of over 19 million barrels.
Experts Call for More Crude Allocation to Local Refineries
Industry stakeholders and local refiners have continued to demand increased crude allocation to domestic refineries as Nigeria seeks to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.
The Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), Eche Idoko, stressed that consistent feedstock supply is critical for refinery profitability and sustainability.
According to him:
“Refining businesses can only thrive when crude supply is regular and reliable.”
Idoko explained that modular refineries and large refining plants would struggle financially without sufficient local crude allocation.
He urged producers and regulators to prioritise domestic refining in line with Nigeria’s energy security and economic diversification goals.
Nigeria’s Refining Expansion Faces Key Test
The latest NUPRC figures have renewed conversations about the balance between crude exports and local refining development.
While crude exports remain Nigeria’s major foreign exchange earner, experts say strengthening domestic refining capacity could help reduce fuel import costs, improve energy security, create jobs, and support industrial growth.
Analysts believe that ensuring adequate crude supply to local refineries — especially the Dangote refinery and modular plants — will be crucial to achieving Nigeria’s long-term refining and economic objectives.
As global energy markets continue to evolve, industry observers say Nigeria faces increasing pressure to strike a better balance between export earnings and domestic value addition within its oil and gas sector.
