The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) has helped accelerate global trade and economic growth, particularly in China, India and other Asian countries, with AI-related trade expanding much faster than overall global trade.
The IMF’s new chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro, made the remarks on Tuesday, October 13, during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand. She told reporters that global trade would have expanded at a significantly slower pace without the boost from AI demand.
Tenreyro, a long-time professor at the London School of Economics, began her new role at the IMF in August. She also raised concerns about high levels of government debt, urging countries to reduce budget deficits by cutting spending. She called on central banks to adopt tighter monetary policies, including raising interest rates where necessary, to bring inflation back to target levels.
According to Tenreyro, the surge in AI-related investment and trade has become a major driver of global economic growth. However, she warned that AI supply chains remain heavily concentrated in a limited number of countries and industries, creating potential bottlenecks that could disrupt the wider economy.
Global trade grew by 8.3 per cent between 2023 and 2025, while trade linked to AI expanded by 29 per cent over the same period, Tenreyro said. Without AI-related trade, overall global trade growth would have been only 4.6 per cent.
The IMF also warned that a correction in market valuations and cybersecurity threats linked to AI could weaken economic growth and increase risks to financial stability.
Tenreyro explained that the IMF’s baseline economic forecast assumes the current AI boom will gradually lose momentum. However, another scenario considered by the organisation suggests that if the boom continues and delivers sustained productivity improvements, those gains could help limit its impact on inflation.
She warned that the outcome could be less favourable if AI investment remains strong without producing meaningful productivity gains. In that situation, the boost to economic growth would be smaller, while inflationary pressures would be greater.
Tenreyro added that a reassessment of the profits businesses expect to earn from AI could also lead to a reduction in demand, potentially reversing some of the gains associated with the current boom.
“It’s basically an unwind of this boom that we are seeing,” she said, adding that the IMF was updating its research into AI’s effects on employment.
