The World Bank has upgraded its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 percent, pointing to improving macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.
The projection was contained in the World Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update released on Tuesday.
The institution also expects Nigeria’s economy to expand by 4.4 percent in both 2027 and 2028, indicating a slightly stronger outlook over the medium term.
“Economic activity in Nigeria is projected to strengthen from 4.0 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026, before edging up to 4.4 percent annually in 2027–28, supported by improving macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence, and a gradual recovery in private investment,” the World Bank said.
The revised outlook follows Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 4.43 percent year-on-year recorded in the second quarter of 2026, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Nigeria was among the African economies whose growth projections were upgraded in the latest assessment. The World Bank linked the improvement to reforms and better economic management.
At the broader regional level, the bank also raised its forecast for sub-Saharan Africa’s growth in 2026 to 4.3 percent, up from its previous projection of 4.1 percent.
World Bank Chief Economist for Africa, Andrew Dabalen, said the region had demonstrated resilience despite a challenging global environment, including higher energy prices associated with disruptions from the Iran conflict.
However, the bank cautioned that economic expansion across Africa has not yet translated sufficiently into poverty reduction, as growth in income per person continues to trail overall economic growth.
For Nigeria specifically, the World Bank said the current pace of expansion remains inadequate to create enough productive employment and significantly reduce poverty.
It also warned that elevated fuel prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East could continue to put pressure on low-income households.
“However, the pace of poverty reduction is likely to remain constrained by elevated fuel prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to weigh disproportionately on low-income households,” the report said.
The World Bank said Nigeria and other African economies would need sustained reforms and increased private-sector investment to turn improved macroeconomic conditions into better living standards.
It also highlighted the importance of better infrastructure, stronger human capital and higher productivity in ensuring that economic growth delivers broader benefits to citizens.
Beyond traditional economic reforms, the institution urged African governments to take advantage of artificial intelligence and other digital technologies to improve productivity and create more employment opportunities.
The World Bank said embracing new technologies could help drive economic transformation, although countries would first need to address gaps in infrastructure and the skills required to make effective use of them.
Source: World Bank.
