Nigeria recorded a merchandise trade surplus of N12.59 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, but economists have warned that the impressive figure does not necessarily reflect strong diversification of the country’s export base.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics, reported that the surplus increased from N7.55 trillion in the first quarter to N12.59 trillion in Q2.
The increase followed a 27.64 per cent quarter-on-quarter rise in total exports, which reached N27.02 trillion, while imports grew by 5.91 per cent to N14.42 trillion.
Despite the stronger trade balance, the composition of Nigeria’s exports remains heavily concentrated around crude oil and other petroleum products. Crude oil alone generated N12.91 trillion, representing 47.79 per cent of total exports, while other oil products contributed N10.38 trillion.
By comparison, non-oil exports were valued at approximately N3.73 trillion, accounting for only 13.8 per cent of total exports.
The president of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ABSON), Dr Femi Egbesola, said the latest trade surplus should not be interpreted as evidence that Nigeria has achieved meaningful export diversification.
Egbesola acknowledged the increase in the surplus but noted that crude oil and other petroleum products still made up about 86 per cent of export earnings.
“What we are seeing is essentially export growth without sufficient structural diversification. The economy therefore remains vulnerable to oil-price volatility and other external shocks,” he said.
He called for measures to reduce the cost of doing business and improve the international competitiveness of Nigerian products.
“This means reliable and affordable electricity, better roads and logistics, efficient ports, faster customs and export documentation, affordable export finance and insurance, and easier access to product certification, standards, packaging and international markets,” Egbesola said.
He noted that these challenges particularly affect small and medium-sized enterprises, which he said should play a central role in Nigeria’s export strategy.
Egbesola also urged Nigeria to shift from exporting mainly raw commodities towards processing them locally and exporting products with greater value.
Rather than exporting cocoa, cashew, leather and other agricultural commodities largely in raw form, he said the country should develop stronger processing and manufacturing capacity while building competitive value chains in areas such as solid minerals, creative industries and digital services.
He called for measurable government targets covering non-oil export earnings and export-ready SMEs.
“The objective should not merely be a bigger trade surplus, but an economy where non-oil exports are strong enough to provide sustainable foreign exchange, jobs and resilience.”
The Director-General of the Nigerian Textile Manufacturers Association (NTMA), Hamma Kwajaffa, also highlighted challenges affecting the ability of Nigerian manufacturers to compete in international markets.
Kwajaffa said comparing the performance of the non-oil sector directly with the oil industry was difficult because manufacturers and exporters faced stringent international laboratory and product requirements.
“Many textile products face rejections at international borders due to non-compliance with these standards. Additionally, other agricultural products like beans and yam often do not reach their intended destinations. This is largely because they are inadequately packaged and lack sufficient protection during transport, leading to damage before they arrive at markets,” he explained.
He stressed the need for greater understanding of the trade-related challenges facing local producers and exporters, arguing that addressing those obstacles would enable Nigerian businesses to benefit more from international markets.
The Director/Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, however, pointed to some changes in the composition of Nigeria’s exports.
Yusuf said there had been some diversification away from crude oil, noting that the share of crude in total exports had fallen compared with previous years.
“Crude oil, which used to account for about 80 per cent to 90 per cent of exports, is now accounting for about 50 per cent or less. Then there is non-crude oil and gas, and that is significant.”
He explained that non-crude oil and gas exports include refined petroleum products, fertiliser, gas and petrochemicals.
“By non-crude oil and gas, I mean exports of refined petroleum products, fertilizer, gas, and petrochemicals. Those now account for about 62 per cent. So unlike in the past when we were only exporting crude oil, we are now adding value. We are now exporting processed or refined petroleum products, petrochemicals, and gas. That, for me, is significant.”
However, Yusuf said the non-oil sector remained limited by weaknesses in manufacturing and agriculture, as well as high production costs.
“Right now, the cost of production is high. Cost of credit is high. Cost of logistics is also very high. Cost of energy is very high. In international trade, if your product is not competitive in price and in quality, you cannot make an impact. Our agricultural sector is also exporting largely primary products, and that does not give us much value.”
According to him, improving productivity and competitiveness would be crucial if Nigeria wants to substantially increase non-oil exports.
“Unless we address these structural problems, it will be very difficult to achieve that productivity and competitiveness.”
Yusuf urged the government to lower production and energy costs, improve access to affordable credit and strengthen logistics infrastructure.
“We need to bring down the cost of production. We need to bring down energy costs. We need to bring down the cost of credit. We also need to improve our logistics. Those things are important. In addition, we need to address insecurity, because our agricultural products are being affected by insecurity. Those are some of the things government can do to boost our non-oil exports,” he added.
The NBS figures show that the improvement in Nigeria’s trade balance was largely driven by the stronger performance of exports during the quarter.
Total exports climbed 27.64 per cent quarter-on-quarter to N27.02 trillion, while imports increased by 5.91 per cent to N14.42 trillion.
Crude oil exports accounted for N12.91 trillion, or 47.79 per cent of total exports, while other oil products contributed N10.38 trillion.
Non-oil exports, meanwhile, stood at approximately N3.73 trillion, representing 13.8 per cent of total exports.
Among the non-oil categories, raw-material exports recorded a significant increase, rising by 50.31 per cent quarter-on-quarter to N2.31 trillion.
Solid-mineral exports also increased by 42.91 per cent to N146.91 billion.
Agricultural exports, however, declined by 31.51 per cent quarter-on-quarter to N803 billion. Manufactured exports rose by 29.87 per cent to N393 billion, although the figure remained significantly below the level recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
The figures therefore highlight both the improvement in Nigeria’s external trade position and the continuing challenge of developing a broader export base capable of generating foreign exchange from manufacturing, agriculture and other non-oil sectors.
Source: NBS
