The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) says Nigeria’s economy is beginning to recover from years of economic challenges following a series of difficult reforms introduced by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.
In an internal report, the revenue service said the country had moved from what it described as “acute macroeconomic distress” towards a more stable and increasingly resilient economy. The NRS attributed the improvement to reforms targeting major problems inherited by the Tinubu administration.
According to the report, the government inherited four major economic distortions: an unsustainable fuel subsidy system, an opaque foreign exchange regime, an underperforming oil sector and a tax system that was generating far below its potential.
The NRS acknowledged that the reforms initially created significant economic hardship but said several key indicators are now pointing towards recovery, including lower inflation, stronger oil production, improved balance of payments, increased tax revenue and changes in the productive structure of the economy.
Oil Production, NGX Market Cap Rise
The report said Nigeria’s oil production increased from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, representing 104 percent of the country’s OPEC quota.
It also credited the naira-for-crude arrangement involving Dangote Refinery and other local refineries with helping Nigeria move towards becoming a net exporter of petroleum products after years of depending heavily on imports.
The capital market has also recorded significant growth, according to the NRS. The market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) increased from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026.
The report attributed the rise partly to improved confidence in the economy, banking-sector recapitalisation and increased participation by domestic institutional investors.
Tax Revenue More Than Doubles
Tax collections also recorded a major increase, rising from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion as of July 2026, according to the report.
The NRS attributed the growth to the digitisation of tax systems, four new tax reform laws, the transformation of the revenue service and an executive order aimed at closing loopholes and improving compliance.
The report said economic growth rose from 2.74 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in the first half of 2026, while external reserves increased from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion as of July 2026.
It added that Nigeria’s balance of payments moved from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026.
The country’s trade position also strengthened, with the report putting the trade balance at N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, compared with a marginal surplus of about N44.7 billion previously.
Annual capital importation also increased from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, while inflows reached $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
CNG, Agriculture and Food Prices
The NRS also highlighted developments under the government’s Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) programme. According to the report, more than 100,000 vehicles had been converted by 2026, while the programme attracted over $2 billion in investment and created more than 10,000 jobs.
In agriculture, federal allocation increased from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in the 2025 budget.
The report said the increase was accompanied by measures including the release of strategic grain reserves, the creation of a N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, fertiliser distribution and agricultural mechanisation programmes.
It also cited figures from the Ministry of Agriculture indicating that food prices had fallen by about 50 percent by March 2026. However, the NRS cautioned that the agricultural sector would require several planting seasons before policy interventions could fully translate into higher production.
Debt Burden Declines Relative to GDP
On Nigeria’s debt position, the NRS acknowledged that the country’s debt stock increased from N87.4 trillion in 2023 to N159.28 trillion in late 2025.
However, it said the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 38 percent in 2023 to 35.5 percent in 2025 and 32.3 percent in 2026.
The report described the decline as the first sustained reduction in more than a decade.
It also said debt servicing as a percentage of government revenue had fallen from 68 percent to an IMF-projected 53 percent, suggesting an improvement in the government’s ability to manage its debt burden.
Overall, the NRS said the figures point to an economy gradually stabilising after the difficult adjustment period triggered by the Tinubu administration’s reforms, while acknowledging that significant challenges remain.
Source: Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).
