Nigeria’s telecommunications industry is approaching the 200 million active-line mark as operators recover lost subscribers, expand high-speed networks and compete for a larger share of the country’s growing data market.
The latest figures from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) showed that active mobile subscriptions increased to 195.11 million in July 2026, up from 192.23 million in June, representing an addition of about 2.88 million lines within one month.
The recovery was recorded across the major operators, although MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria continue to dominate the market. MTN crossed the 100 million mark in July, rising from 98.64 million active subscriptions in June to 100.86 million.
Airtel had 66.12 million subscribers in June, while Globacom accounted for 23.68 million and T2, formerly 9mobile, recorded 3.54 million active lines.
MTN held a 51.38 per cent market share, followed by Airtel with 34.44 per cent, Globacom with 12.34 per cent and T2 with 1.84 per cent. Together, MTN and Airtel accounted for more than 85 per cent of the market as of June.
Data becomes key growth driver
The industry’s recovery, however, extends beyond the rising number of subscribers, as increasing data consumption is becoming a major source of growth for telecom operators.
The shift is reflected in the growing adoption of faster network technologies. NCC data showed that 4G and 5G connections represented 58.92 per cent of the market in June 2026, compared with 54.49 per cent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the combined share of 2G and 3G connections fell to 41.08 per cent, indicating a continued migration towards smartphones and data-intensive services.
Airtel’s performance also highlights the changing nature of the market. Its 2026 annual report showed that its Nigerian customer base reached 58.3 million by March 2026, while data customers increased to 31.4 million.
The company added more than 1,050 sites and deployed 657 5G sites during the financial year. Data usage per customer rose by 30.8 per cent to 11GB monthly, while data revenue increased by 63.6 per cent in constant currency.
MTN also recorded a similar shift in its revenue structure. Its first-half 2026 results showed data revenue of about N1.70 trillion, significantly higher than voice revenue of N993.46 billion.
The growth in data traffic is putting additional pressure on operators to expand network capacity and invest in infrastructure to meet rising demand.
Competition shifts beyond subscriber numbers
With data becoming increasingly important, competition among telecom operators is gradually moving beyond simply adding subscribers.
Operators are now competing for customers who consume more data and generate higher revenues through services such as video streaming, social media, cloud applications and digital payments.
Globacom remains a major player despite having a smaller customer base than MTN and Airtel, with 23.68 million active lines as of June and more than 12 per cent of the market.
T2 remains the smallest of the four major mobile network operators, with 3.54 million subscribers and a 1.84 per cent market share.
However, the return of the industry towards the 200 million-line threshold is not expected to automatically produce proportional revenue growth.
Operators continue to face rising data consumption, network expansion costs, spectrum requirements, power challenges, fibre cuts and the need to maintain reliable service quality.
Recovery follows subscriber disconnections
Nigeria’s mobile market had previously contracted significantly following the enforcement of subscriber identification requirements, which resulted in widespread disconnections.
The increase to 195.11 million active lines therefore reflects both the reconnection of previously disconnected customers and fresh demand for mobile services.
At the same time, network usage has continued to rise. Airtel reported a 43.4 per cent increase in data usage in Nigeria during its 2026 financial year, while average data consumption per customer reached 11GB monthly.
The continued growth is expected to require further investment in 4G, 5G, fibre and transmission infrastructure across the industry.
Regulator faces new challenge
The transition towards faster networks and higher data consumption is also creating a new competitive environment.
Operators with stronger network capacity and wider high-speed coverage could have an advantage as consumers increasingly rely on their mobile phones for video, social media, digital payments and other data-heavy activities.
For the NCC, the growing subscriber base creates the additional responsibility of ensuring that increased customer numbers are matched by adequate infrastructure and quality of service.
Without corresponding investment in network capacity, the larger customer base could increase congestion and negatively affect service quality in areas with heavy traffic.
The industry is therefore entering a phase where subscriber numbers remain an important measure of market strength, but data consumption, network quality, smartphone penetration and average revenue per user are becoming equally important indicators.
With Nigeria’s active subscriber base now at 195.11 million and MTN alone accounting for more than 100 million lines, the approach towards the 200 million threshold reflects the country’s continued digital expansion.
The bigger challenge, however, will be whether telecom operators can convert the growing customer and data base into sustained investment, better service quality and wider digital access.
The next stage of competition is therefore unlikely to be determined solely by which operator adds the most lines, but by who can build the infrastructure, secure the required spectrum and deliver the digital services needed by Nigerians who are increasingly using their phones for more activities and consuming more data.
Source: Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) / Company reports
