The proposed N2.15 trillion Initial Public Offering (IPO) by Dangote Refinery could help increase Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from about $278 billion to approximately $600 billion by 2030, economist and Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), Bismarck Rewane, has said.
Rewane spoke at the Abuja investor roadshow for the refinery’s IPO, where he said the investment could create significant multiplier effects through increased industrial production, investment, consumer spending and exports.
He said the planned expansion of the refinery from its current capacity of 650,000–700,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day represented a major private-sector investment capable of significantly changing the structure of Nigeria’s economy.
According to him, Nigeria’s GDP, estimated at $278 billion in 2025, could rise to about $600 billion following the investment. He also projected consumer spending to increase from $166 billion to $240 billion, while investment could rise from $72 billion to $216 billion.
Rewane added that stronger net exports could support the naira and further increase the value of economic output.
He said Dangote Refinery currently accounted for an estimated 16.91 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP by valuation and approximately 45 per cent of the country’s stock market capitalisation.
Rewane urged Nigerians to take advantage of the IPO and invest in an asset he described as capable of delivering significant economic and industrial benefits.
“Start small, stay invested, reinvest in the gains, and build wealth,” he said, describing the refinery as an impact investment for Nigeria and Africa.
Earlier, Chairman of the event, Oluwagbenga Oyebode, described the IPO as a landmark transaction for Nigeria’s capital market, saying it would significantly increase market capitalisation while creating greater exposure to the energy and downstream sectors on the Nigerian Exchange.
He said the offer comprised 4.1 billion ordinary shares at N525 per share, with expected net proceeds of about N2.1 trillion, representing 3.3 per cent of the company’s issued capital.
According to Oyebode, the proceeds would be used entirely as growth capital to finance the next phase of the refinery’s expansion rather than for balance-sheet repair.
He described the transaction, which was approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as the first major public offering under the Investment and Securities Act (ISA) 2025.
Oyebode said the IPO could raise total market capitalisation from about N160 trillion to approximately N225 trillion, while improving liquidity and broadening the sectoral composition of the Nigerian Exchange.
He said the offer was designed to attract retail investors, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares costing N5,250, in line with the promoters’ aim of making it an “IPO for the people.”
Oyebode said the promoters were targeting about 10 million retail investors, adding that the offer had also been assessed as Sharia-compliant, which could further expand the pool of potential investors.
Representing President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, at the roadshow, Regional Adviser Fatima Wali Abdulrahman said the IPO was part of the group’s broader vision of accelerating industrialisation across Africa.
Dangote said the group intended to raise N2.15 trillion, equivalent to about $1.6 billion, at N525 per share to finance the refinery’s expansion programme.
He said the minimum subscription had deliberately been set at 10 shares to encourage wider participation, stressing that the objective was for “every Nigerian to own a piece of this asset.”
According to him, the group was also planning investments in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Namibia, while targeting listings in about six other African countries.
Dangote said Africans must take the lead in developing the continent’s economies, adding that the refinery and petrochemical complex would create opportunities for value creation across Africa.
Oyebode said the refinery’s expansion would not only increase fuel production but also strengthen Nigeria’s position in higher-value segments of the hydrocarbon value chain through petrochemicals, fertiliser, polymers and industrial feedstock.
Also speaking, Professor Uche Uwaleke of Nasarawa State University urged investors to buy and retain their shares as a long-term investment.
Uwaleke said the IPO prospectus provided for an additional share as a bonus for investors who held their shares for at least one year.
He called for greater participation by retail investors, particularly artisans, workers and small-business owners, stressing the importance of taking the investment opportunity to ordinary Nigerians.
