Campaigning for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election has officially kicked off, with the country’s worsening cost of living, economic reforms and persistent insecurity expected to dominate political debate ahead of the January 16 poll.
The campaign season began on Wednesday, five months before Nigerians head to the polls, as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu seeks a second term amid an opposition landscape that remains divided.
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, continues to grapple with years of economic difficulties and violence involving armed groups. Analysts say the economy is likely to be the biggest issue for voters because of its direct impact on household finances, security and development.
“The economy is the biggest issue. That’s the one thing that cuts across different parts of the country,” said Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, author of The Bellwether newsletter on Nigerian politics.
Tinubu’s Reforms Under Scrutiny
Tinubu, who was elected president in 2023, has spent his first term implementing major economic reforms, including the removal of the costly fuel subsidy that had kept petrol prices artificially lower for years and indirectly suppressed prices across the economy.
Although economists and investors have praised the reforms, they have also contributed to a severe cost-of-living crisis, with the naira losing significant value and inflation reaching as high as 34 per cent.
Headline inflation has since eased to 15.4 per cent as of July, but many Nigerians continue to struggle with the impact of higher prices.
Poverty also remains a major concern. The World Bank estimates that more than 60 per cent of Nigerians now live below the poverty line, compared with about 40 per cent in 2019.
The poverty trend began before Tinubu took office but has continued during his administration, making economic hardship a key issue likely to shape voters’ decisions.
Civil servant Afolayan Abdullahi, 42, said the economy and cost of living were his biggest concerns and that he intended to vote for Tinubu.
Security Remains Another Major Challenge
Beyond the economy, Nigeria is facing multiple security crises involving jihadist insurgents, armed bandit groups, clashes between farmers and herders over land and a continuing separatist conflict.
According to Ladd Serwat, a senior Africa analyst at conflict monitor ACLED, violence has increased since 2024.
He attributed the rise to the spread and intensification of armed banditry across northern and central Nigeria, alongside increased conflict in Borno State, the centre of the country’s long-running jihadist insurgency.
For many voters, insecurity remains closely connected to the economic crisis because attacks, kidnappings and displacement continue to affect livelihoods and movement.
Becky Alegbe, a 28-year-old street vendor in Abuja, said insecurity remains a major concern.
“Nigeria is not safe — terrorists, kidnappers, bandits everywhere,” she said.
Alegbe is registered to vote in her home village in Edo State but said she would be reluctant to travel there for the election because of security concerns and the sharp increase in transportation costs.
She also expressed concern about vote-buying, which has been a recurring criticism of Nigerian elections.
2027 Could Be a Rematch of 2023
The 2027 presidential election is expected to partly repeat the contest that took place four years earlier.
Tinubu is again running against Peter Obi, the former governor of Anambra State, and Atiku Abubakar, the former vice president.
In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu won with 36.6 per cent of the vote, while Atiku secured 29 per cent and Obi received 25 per cent.
Rabiu Kwankwaso, who finished with about six per cent in 2023, has now teamed up with Obi as his running mate.
Tinubu enters the campaign with significant political advantages. His All Progressives Congress (APC) controls the National Assembly as well as 31 of Nigeria’s 36 governorships, giving the ruling party a strong nationwide political structure.
Analysts say the divided opposition could work in Tinubu’s favour as he seeks another four-year term.
Adekaiyaoja said opposition parties have remained too consumed by internal disagreements and legal battles to clearly present a strong alternative to Tinubu’s policies.
“The opposition has been too mired in internal and legal issues to really articulate a difference,” he said.
Voter Turnout Could Be Crucial
The election will also take place against a backdrop of historically low voter participation.
Only 27 per cent of registered voters turned out for the 2023 presidential election, raising questions about whether economic hardship, insecurity, transportation costs and distrust in the political system could discourage Nigerians from voting again.
For voters such as Alegbe, the decision to travel to polling locations could come with significant financial and security risks.
With the campaign now underway, candidates are expected to focus heavily on the economy, cost of living, security and their competing visions for Nigeria’s future.
The January 16 election will ultimately determine whether Tinubu secures a second term or whether one of the opposition candidates can overcome the ruling party’s political advantage.
Source: AFP
