Nigerians could soon face another rise in the cost of living as global crude oil prices climb above $100 per barrel, fueling concerns over possible increases in petrol prices, transport fares and the cost of essential goods.
The latest surge in oil prices follows growing tensions in the Middle East, particularly the escalating conflict involving the United States and Iran, which has raised fears of disruptions to global crude oil supplies.
Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude crossed the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since May, as investors reacted to concerns that prolonged instability in the region could tighten global oil supply. The Middle East accounts for nearly one-third of the world’s crude oil exports.
While the increase in oil prices is expected to boost Nigeria’s earnings from crude oil exports, experts warn that ordinary Nigerians may end up paying more for fuel and other everyday necessities.
The 2026 Federal Government budget was based on an oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, meaning the country is currently earning about $35 more per barrel than initially projected. If production levels remain stable, this could generate billions of naira in additional government revenue.
However, analysts note that Nigeria’s oil production remains below the budget target. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country currently produces about 1.7 million barrels per day, including condensates, compared to the budget estimate of 1.84 million barrels per day.
For consumers, the bigger concern is the likely increase in petrol prices.
As crude oil becomes more expensive, the cost of importing fuel also rises, making it more expensive for marketers to bring petrol into the country. This often leads to higher pump prices under Nigeria’s deregulated petroleum market.
If fuel prices rise, transportation costs are also expected to increase, with the effects likely spreading to food prices, manufactured goods and other essential commodities.
Commenting on the development, Managing Director of Petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, said the recent spike in crude prices has reversed the downward trend that many had expected in fuel prices.
“With the resumption of loading by Dangote Petroleum Refinery in naira at ₦1,215 per litre, we expected fuel importers to reduce prices. However, the sudden increase in crude oil prices due to the Middle East crisis has disrupted that trend. We should expect more price instability in the coming weeks,” he said.
Also reacting, National President of the Oil and Gas Services Providers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN), Mazi Colman Obasi, warned that the impact could soon be felt across the economy.
“The implications will be far-reaching for households, businesses and the wider economy once operators across the value chain adjust their prices,” he said.
Data from Petroleumprice.ng showed that before the latest jump in crude oil prices, several fuel depots in Lagos, Warri and Calabar had reduced their loading prices to attract customers, while prices in Port Harcourt remained relatively stable.
Meanwhile, petrol currently sells for between ₦1,300 and ₦1,400 per litre at many filling stations in Lagos and surrounding areas, depending on location.
With global oil prices remaining volatile, many Nigerians are now watching closely to see whether another round of fuel price hikes—and the resulting increase in the cost of living—will follow.
