The ongoing El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to become even stronger before reaching its peak in December, with the United Nations warning that the event could rank among the most intense recorded since 1950.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the weather pattern is likely to push temperatures above normal across large parts of the world while also disrupting rainfall patterns.
In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the UN weather agency warned that the changing conditions could increase the risk of both drought and flooding in different regions.
“El Nino will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December,” the WMO said.
The organisation explained that El Niño occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. The resulting changes in atmospheric circulation can influence temperatures, winds and rainfall patterns far beyond the Pacific region.
The phenomenon normally occurs every two to seven years and can last between nine and 12 months.
It alternates with La Niña, its cooler counterpart, while periods between the two are considered neutral conditions.
El Niño Strengthening Rapidly
The WMO said ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to reach exceptionally high levels during October, November and December 2026.
The forecast was developed using information from 13 leading national and international meteorological centres.
“El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.
She added that there is a near-100 per cent probability that the current El Niño will continue through February 2027.
“WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 percent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950,” Saulo said.
According to Saulo, El Niño does not create additional heat for the planet. Instead, it causes some of the heat stored in the ocean to be released into the atmosphere.
“The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release,” she explained.
Ocean Temperatures Reach Record Levels
Measurements from the central-eastern equatorial Pacific show just how rapidly the event has intensified.
Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the region rose from 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C above normal in August.
For the October-November-December period, the anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 3.7°C above normal.
If that forecast is confirmed, it would represent the highest level recorded since observations began, surpassing the previous record of 2.6°C, recorded during the 2015-2016 El Niño.
The WMO noted that El Niño can have consequences far beyond the Pacific, affecting weather conditions, agriculture, ecosystems and economies around the world.
The previous El Niño event contributed to exceptionally high global temperatures, helping make 2023 the second-hottest year on record, while 2024 became the hottest year recorded, at around 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
Although El Niño generally reaches its strongest point between November and February, the increase in global temperatures associated with the phenomenon often becomes more noticeable afterward.
Drought Already Affecting Some Regions
Some areas are already experiencing the effects of the current El Niño.
In parts of Central America, severe drought has reportedly affected agriculture and wildlife, with animals and crops dying as water shortages worsen.
The WMO’s warning comes as governments and communities prepare for potentially significant changes in weather conditions over the coming months.
The combination of a strong El Niño and ongoing human-driven climate change could further intensify temperature extremes and increase the pressure on communities already vulnerable to droughts, floods and other weather-related disruptions.
Source: AFP
