Fresh divisions have emerged within Nigeria’s opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 presidential election following controversial remarks linked to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar over the issue of zoning and the possibility of defeating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The debate has triggered strong reactions from several opposition parties, political movements, and stakeholders, many of whom insist that the presidency should remain in Southern Nigeria in the interest of fairness, political balance, and national unity.
Major political groups including the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Labour Party (LP), Young Progressives Party (YPP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), alongside the Obidient and Kwankwasiyya movements, openly disagreed with Atiku’s political calculations.
Atiku Camp Warns Opposition Against Southern Presidential Ticket
The controversy began after Atiku’s media aide, Olusola Sanni, issued a statement cautioning opposition parties against zoning their 2027 presidential tickets to the South.
According to the statement, it would be politically difficult for any southern opposition candidate to defeat a sitting southern president like Tinubu in the next election.
The Atiku camp argued that Nigerian political history does not support the idea of a southern opposition candidate unseating another southern incumbent president.
The statement noted:
“No incumbent president has ever been defeated by an opposition challenger from the same geopolitical region. To insist otherwise may amount to entering the election already defeated.”
Atiku’s camp also argued that the South would have spent significantly more years in power than the North by 2027 if another southern presidency is allowed to continue.
According to the argument, the South would have held power for approximately 18 years in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic compared to about 10 years for the North.
The statement suggested that allowing the South to retain power beyond 2027 could deepen perceived political imbalance between both regions.
Opposition Parties Reject Atiku’s Position
However, several opposition figures and party leaders quickly rejected the position, describing it as divisive, politically narrow, and inconsistent with Nigeria’s long-standing power-sharing understanding.
Many of them argued that respecting the North-South rotation principle remains necessary for national stability and political inclusion.
APGA Says South Should Complete Its Turn
The National Publicity Secretary of APGA, Ejimofor Opara, insisted that the South should be allowed to complete another term in office.
According to him, President Tinubu remains defeatable regardless of regional considerations.
He stated:
“It is still the South’s turn, and every fair-minded Nigerian should support that arrangement in the interest of equity and stability.”
Opara also claimed that disagreements already emerging within the opposition coalition could weaken efforts to build a united front ahead of 2027.
He warned that personal ambition should not override collective national interest.
YPP Says Competence Matters More Than Region
The YPP also dismissed Atiku’s argument, insisting that competence, leadership capacity, and vision should take precedence over zoning politics.
The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Wale Egbeola-Martins, said there was nothing automatic about Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.
According to him:
“No law says a southern candidate cannot defeat another southern candidate. Elections are ultimately decided by Nigerians.”
He argued that Nigeria’s challenges have persisted under both northern and southern presidents, showing that regional identity alone does not guarantee good governance.
Egbeola-Martins added that Nigerians should focus more on competence, character, and the ability to solve the country’s economic and security problems.
Using a medical analogy, he explained:
“When a person is seriously ill, they do not ask for a doctor from their region; they look for the most competent doctor capable of saving their life.”
SDP Confident Southern Candidate Can Defeat Tinubu
The SDP also rejected the idea that only a northern opposition candidate could challenge Tinubu successfully.
The party’s spokesman, Rufus Aiyenigba, revealed that Adewole Adebayo had already emerged as the SDP’s southern presidential candidate for 2027.
According to Aiyenigba, worsening economic hardship, inflation, business failures, and insecurity would play a bigger role in the election than regional politics.
He said:
“People are more concerned about hunger, insecurity, and economic survival than where a candidate comes from.”
The SDP maintained that Nigerians are increasingly dissatisfied with the current administration and may prioritise leadership performance over zoning arguments.
NNPP Defends North-South Power Rotation
The NNPP acknowledged the existence of an informal agreement between the North and South regarding presidential rotation.
NNPP National Chairman, Yusuf Bala Usman, explained that many Nigerians still believe the South should complete its eight-year cycle before power shifts back to the North.
According to him:
“Tinubu is currently serving the South’s turn, and the next four years should still remain within the South if Nigerians agree.”
However, Bala also emphasized that voters, not political elites, would ultimately decide who becomes president in 2027.
Kwankwasiyya Movement Describes Atiku’s Comments as Divisive
The Kwankwasiyya Movement strongly criticised Atiku’s position, describing it as insulting and capable of deepening regional division.
Spokesman Habibu Muhammed accused the former vice president of promoting dangerous sentiments at a time Nigeria requires unity and political stability.
According to him:
“It is unfair to suggest that no qualified person exists in the South capable of leading the country.”
Muhammed argued that power rotation has already become part of Nigeria’s political culture and should be respected to maintain peace and fairness.
He stressed that Nigerians need leadership capable of calming tensions and restoring national confidence.
NDC Says Opposition Mood Favours Southern Presidency
The NDC also rejected Atiku’s position, insisting that most opposition stakeholders currently support retaining the presidency in the South.
The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Abdulmumin Abdulsalam, stated that zoning the ticket back to the North would be politically unpopular at this stage.
He said many Nigerians are frustrated with economic hardship and governance challenges but still believe justice requires the South to complete its turn.
According to him:
“The key issue before Nigerians is not only regional identity but whether the next leader can revive the economy, improve security, and restore public confidence.”
Labour Party Rejects Atiku’s Political Calculations
The Labour Party also disagreed with Atiku’s analysis, arguing that the 2023 election already disproved the claim that a southern opposition candidate cannot defeat another southerner.
LP spokesman Ken Asogwa noted that despite multiple southern candidates contesting in 2023, Tinubu still emerged victorious.
According to him, voting behaviour in Nigeria is far more complex than simple regional calculations.
He explained that factors such as insecurity, inclusion, economic hardship, and governance performance increasingly shape voter decisions.
Asogwa stated:
“The argument that only geography determines electoral victory ignores the realities of modern Nigerian politics.”
PDP Defends Zoning as Tool for National Stability
Although reactions against Atiku intensified, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) maintained that zoning remains an important mechanism for promoting inclusivity and reducing political tension.
PDP Interim National Working Committee spokesman Ini Ememobong explained that the zoning principle was originally introduced to encourage national balance and unity.
He noted that many Nigerians still support the idea of allowing the South to complete its current political cycle before power returns to the North.
Obi and Kwankwaso Move to NDC Amid Coalition Talks
Meanwhile, fresh political realignments continue to reshape the opposition landscape ahead of 2027.
Former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi and former Kano State governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso recently joined the NDC as coalition talks intensified among opposition leaders.
The Obidient Movement claimed the move was necessary to avoid alleged internal plots within the ADC that could have frustrated their presidential ambitions through legal disputes.
National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement Worldwide, Yunusa Tanko, said the coalition remains united despite rumours of division.
According to him:
“The country needs to be rescued, and opposition leaders must work together instead of allowing political traps to derail the coalition.”
Zoning Debate Set to Shape 2027 Election Politics
Political analysts believe the growing disagreement over zoning, regional balance, and coalition strategy may become one of the defining issues ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
While supporters of power rotation argue that respecting the North-South arrangement is necessary to maintain national cohesion, others insist that competence and electability should remain the priority.
The ongoing debate is also expected to test the unity of opposition parties seeking to form a strong alliance capable of challenging the APC in 2027.
For now, however, the sharp reactions trailing Atiku’s position suggest that the battle over zoning and presidential ticket allocation is far from over and may continue to dominate Nigeria’s political conversation in the months ahead.
